سازه‌های اثرگذار بر مدیریت خشک‌سالی کشاورزان و پیامدهای آن: کاربرد مدل معادلات ساختاری

Drought is an unavoidable natural disaster in dry and arid regions of the world. Studies indicate that Iran with its geographical and climatic characteristics is poor in water resources. Moreover, it is estimated that in 2025, Iran should increase the water resources by 112% in order to maintain status quo. Therefore, the occurrence of drought is more prevalent in the future. This implies a real challenge for researchers to study how to manage farms during the onset of drought. Inappropriate management strategies result in loss of resources, which in turn leads to more destructive impacts of drought, consequently leading to more droughts in future. The purpose of this survey study was to identify factors influencing drought management among farmers in Fars province, Iran. A multistage stratified random sampling technique was used to select a representative sample of farmers who has experienced drought in recent years. A total of 258 farmers were interviewed using a questionnaire. A panel of experts verified face validity. A pilot study was used to assess the reliability of the measuring instrument. Cluster analysis and Structural Equation Modeling were used for data analysis. Results indicated that farmers with different social, economical, and technical characteristics chose different management strategies when coping with drought conditions. Despite farmers' efforts to manage drought, they face harsh consequences. These consequences include economic losses and degradation of farming environment. It is therefore recommended that policy makers who are involved in drought management programs learn more about farmers' drought mitigation techniques and make further attempts to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of techniques used by farmers.